Is Burundi risking a transition?

Dr Nimubona,J.

“When, in USA CIA’s documents go out control – remembering Weak leaks-, there is a danger” says Dr Nimubona, Julien. The political scientist is analyzing the political situation in Burundi, couple of months before elections in Burundi. 

Audace Machado

General Niyombare Godefroid, set Chief of the –Burundi- National Intelligence Agency around three months ago, is also kicked out by “Not only the President Nkurunziza, but with a group of some other police and army officers”, feels the Professor. That happened on February 18^th, three days after a cable from the NIA had presented an important cautioning document to the Head of the State.  It’s not a tract as long as nobody rebuffed its existence.

The document is important as, “It assumes its allegations –government’s errors-.It asks Nkurunziza. It addresses also the Government’s donors”, Dr Nimubona explains. The main idea of the document seems to advise Nkurunziza not to even attempt any third term campaign, and for his/and the country’s sake. “If he even tries, I am afraid that elections won’t take place, for two major reasons: first, I suspect opponents would leave the competition. Second, considering some disappointments towards the Arusha Peace Accord, donors would uncouple with the government”, Nimubona interprets.  In other words and locally, any mulish from Nkurunziza may output troubles in the country: 

Gen.Niyombare,G.

“If nothing changes, I see a transitional government at the gate. It is absolutely possible. Look, people and all over the world think coup d’Etat are anymore achievable, which is wrong. When troubles break out, governments lose their power. If they last, the results are always that some organized people try to control such situation. Burundi may look alike Burkina Faso, though conditions and circumstances differ. 
(Bob, arrest till liberation in bref and picture)
I mean, someone can lead the country to other elections, in that case”, Dr Nimubona gives such details considering two aspects: one, “If Burundi peace keeping troups are doing their task efficiently in Somalia or elsewhere, it's not obvious in Burundi. This is their own community and identity, do you understand? Two, we can refer to demonstrations that occurred last Thursday.”